Showing posts with label Jobs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jobs. Show all posts

Friday, May 7, 2021

Does data prove that the "low" jobs additions in April '21 is due to extended unemployment benefits?

 The U.S. Chamber of Commerce tweeted that the extended unemployment benefits should be stopped given the "low" number of job additions during April 2021.

There's lot of chatter that people are getting more in unemployment benefits and that's keeping them from taking a job. April saw addition of 266,000 jobs. In a normal economy, 266,000 jobs would be a very good report. There could be multiple reasons for why the jobs report came in well below the expectation of a 1 million jobs. 

  • Many parents still have kids who are remote learning. So, they may not have the flexibility to take-up employment while they are caring for their kids.    
  • Vaccines were only widely available in the middle of April. So, people who were waiting to get vaccinated before heading to work, can only now get fully vaccinated.  
The best response to US Chamber of Commerce was provided by Ben Zipperer:         

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Boeing Lost Support at 50-Day Moving Average In a Bearish Sign For the Stock

Boeing has lost support at the 50-day moving average. This is a bearish sign for the stock.

Exhibit: Boeing's Simple Moving Average (Data based on Monday, July 27, 2020)


(Source: Secure Your Financial Independence - DJIA SMA Report)

Boeing is currently trading at $169.26. There seems to be support at this level. If it loses support here, then Boeing may drop all the way to $120 for the next support level.  Given the bad news at Boeing, it is entirely possible that it will touch $120 in the coming weeks or months. 

Exhibit: Boeing Has Support at $169. If it loses this support, it may drop all the way to $120. 


(Source: SeekingAlpha & Author Annotations)

    Boeing recently announced that it will delay its 777x jet by up to an year. Even before the pandemic, Boeing was dealing with the problems with its 737 Max jets. When the pandemic hit, it grounded the entire travel industry. It now seems like it may take years before the travel industry can fully recover. It may take a couple of years after travel gets back to 2019 level that Boeing will start to get new orders for jets. There's so much excess inventory of jets across the globe that airlines may put off buying new jets for years. Combine this with the problem of airlines going bankrupt and you have lesser number of customers to chase for new jet orders.  Given all these factors, it's entirely plausible that Boeing's stock could give-up much of its gain since May 2020 and retrace to $120. If it loses support at $120, it may test its lows below $100.
    This crisis is a real test of leadership. Boeing is such an iconic company that it's painful to see this downfall. I am confident that in 3-5 years Boeing will be in much better shape.
(Disclosure: I own Boeing)        




Saturday, July 18, 2020

Iberdrola and Orsted - The Global Renewable Energy Giants

      This was the headline from the Financial Times that caught my eye:

(Source: FT.com)
    The article talked about how the US spending on wind power is set to go from zero 10-years ago to $78 billion in the 2020 decade. That is a truly astounding turnaround in the fortunes of the renewable energy sector. A couple of years ago I had heard of this renewable energy company called Iberdrola from Spain. At that time I briefly read about it in the financial news and did not do an in-depth research into that company. This headline spurred me to action. We are in the midst of a far-reaching energy transformation that could transform every aspect of life by the year 2035. I wanted to learn more about not just Iberdrola but also Orsted - which is another renewable energy giant from Denmark. I don't remember hearing about Orsted until it was mentioned in this Financial Times article.
    Iberdrola comes from a very long history that dates back to the 20th century. The Wikipedia entry for the company makes for a fascinating read. Today it is one of the largest energy companies in the world with subsidiaries in multiple nations across the globe. Its subsidiary in the U.S. is called Avangrid. Avangrid has about 7,000 employees in the U.S and is headquartered in Orange, Connecticut. Iberdrola had revenues of € 36,437 million in 2019. In 2018 its revenues were € 35,075. Its EBITDA exceeded € 10 billion for the first time in 2019. Avangrid is traded in the U.S stock markets in the NYSE under the symbol AGR
    Orsted on the other hand had total revenue of DKK 67,842 million in 2019 (€ 9,113 million Exchange rate as of July 18, 2020: 1 Danish Krone = € 0.13). In 2018 the company had revenues of DKK 76,946 million (€ 10,336 million). Orsted had EBITDA of DKK 17.5 billion (€ 2.35 billion) in 2019.             
            



Paccar: Peak Demand For Trucks

 Paccar ( PCAR ) produced 185,900 trucks in 2022 and is on track for another record year in 2023. The company has experienced good revenue ...