A 6% return on Caterpillar in 6 days

I bought Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) at $131.60 on August 4, 2020. I had visualized my trade in a previous blog post on this stock. I had placed a limit order at $139.97 or just below the $140. The limit got triggered today for a return of 6.3% in six days. My rational was that the stock could face some resistance just about $140 and wanted to exit my position at that level.  

Exhibit: Caterpillar trade set-up between August 4 and August 10, 2020 

 (Source: TradingView)   

Western Digital Had Good Earnings. But Gross Margins Could Improve

Western Digital (WDC) Saw its revenue increase by 18% YoY. It had another record quarter for its flash storage business. Two out of its three business segments did very well. How many companies in today's economy can actually say that it's growing revenue at a double-digit pace?  If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 20 out of 30 companies in that index saw YoY EPS decline. 

Exhibit: WDC showed good revenue growth in Q4 FY 2020

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

Its Data Center business continue growing and its revenue increased 32% YoY. Its Client Devices business grew revenue by 19% YoY. But due to the closure of retail stores because of the pandemic, its Client Solutions business suffered.

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

The company has made it a priority to pay down debt. Its gross margins have shown improvement but it could improve further. Gross margin percentage has gone from 24.2% in Q4 FY 2019 to 28.9% in Q4 FY 20.

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

For example, the company's non-gaap gross margins were at 43% in Q2 of FY 2018.  So, it's possible for Western Digital to improve its gross margins substantially. 

Exhibit: In Q2 FY 2018 WDC had Good Gross Margins. It's possible for WDC to get to this level again. 

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

I see there could be two drivers for gross margin improvement in the second-half of the year.

• The release of new video game consoles from Playstation and Xbox should drive demand for storage demand and lift the average selling price (ASP)
  
• The company's 16-TB and 18-TB hard drives based on HAMR technology should see good demand in the cloud space. 
  

I had recently done an article on SeekingAlpha and I had covered both Micron (MU) and Western Digital as part of that.      

(Disclosure: I own both MU and WDC)          

Disastrous Earnings at Dow Jones Industrial Average for the Latest Quarter

As of June 30, 2020, most of the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have already reported quarterly earnings . The pandemic induced recession and the oil price war waged by Saudi Arabia and Russia have ravaged the earnings of the companies in the index. The first quartile EPS growth rate for the DJIA was a negative 68%.  The third quartile EPS growth was just 5%.

Exhibit: Latest Quarter EPS Growth Rate for Companies in the DJIA

(Source: SECURFII)

    

Exhibit: Gains from 52-Week Low for Companies in the DJIA

(Source: SECURFII)

Given this earnings back drop the stocks have done remarkably well. The first quartile gain for stocks in the DJIA from their 52-week low was 35%. The third quartile gain was 62%.

Exxon Mobil had the biggest drop in EPS going from $0.53 in the previous quarter to a negative $0.7 in the latest quarter that ended June 2020. 

In fact 20 out of their 30 companies in the DJIA recorded negative EPS growth rates.

 

Exhibit: Earnings of some of the companies in the DJIA

(Source: SECURFII)

 

(Disclosure: I own XOM, CVX, DOW, and others in the DJIA) 

Ford's New CEO Faces a Tough Road Ahead

On August 4, 2020 Ford (NYSE: F) announced that they are replacing Jim Hackett - the current CEO - with Jim Farley.  Farley was serving as the Chief Operating Officer at the company. Ford is getting ready to launch the new model for its iconic F-150. The F-150 is the best selling vehicle in the U.S. 

Exhibit: Ford is Launching a New Model of its Most Important Vehicle - The Ford F-150

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

Ford is also reviving its iconic Bronco brand in 2021. The new Bronco, I must admit looks absolutely stunning. 

Exhibit: The New Ford Bronco Line-up

(Source: Ford Website)

Ford is also making a huge commitment to electric vehicles. The company will have 15 electrified vehicle models available by end of the year. The competition in the electric vehicle market is heating up substantially with General Motors releasing a whole slew of vehicles and many other auto makers doing the same.

Exhibit: Ford is Launching New Electric Vehicles

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

Even before this pandemic induced economic crisis, Ford was not generating enough cash flow. It had a meager $0.5 billion in adjusted free cash flow in Q4 2019.

The challenge for Ford is that they were late to the electric car market and their upcoming models may not be differentiated enough. For example, their Escape plug-in hybrid model is advertised as having a 490 mile range. That would be a good range for a plug-in hybrid but there are many vehicle with that range. Given the upcoming competition in the the electric vehicle market will a model such as Escape plug-in hybrid stand out. 

They may have to do what Mary Barra at General Motors (GM) did years ago. She exited unprofitable markets such as Europe and India. Ford may have to exit unprofitable markets and bring their manufacturing capacity in-line with their sales and ensure they can stay profitable in a recession such as the one we are in now. 

Ford has a tough road ahead and in the interim the stock is going to continue under-performing.           

(Disclosure: I do not own Ford stock)

 

What is wrong with 3M?

I am going to break the suspense and answer the question in the title: "There's nothing wrong with 3M!" Its earnings for the quarter that ended June 2020 was exception given the tough circumstances under which every company in the world has been operating this year. Its GAAP EPS was $2.22 for Q2 2020 against an estimate of $1.80. Its revenue of $7.18 billion missed estimates by just $110 million. Complete industries in this era of the pandemic are in a free-fall and here we are punishing an essential, iconic American company for missing revenue by an amount, which would be 1.5% of the $7.18 billion.

Exhibit: 3M Q2 2020 Sales Declined by 13.1%

(Source: SeekingAlpha)

Yes, there was broad weakness in sales across all their business segments. But the company has been aggressive in reducing costs and was able to improve adjusted EBITDA margin by 110 basis points to 26.5%. Their operating cash flow increased 15% year-over-year to $1.9 billion. The management even paid down debt by $1.7 billion since the March 31, 2020 quarter.

The stock has been punished after the earnings. It has dropped from about $163 and trades a little over $151 as of August 4th. 

Exhibit: 3M Technical Indicators are Flashing a Strong Sell on August 4, 2020.

(Source: Tradingview)

Currently, the technical indicators are all flashing a strong sell signal. The market seems to be giving-up on 3M. But the Bollinger Bands are tightening and this raises the possibility of a sharp price move in either direction. Given that the other technical signals are flashing sell, tightening Bollinger Bands could indicate a drop from this level.

Exhibit: 3M Bollinger Bands are Tightening.

(Source: Tradingview)

(Disclosure: I do not own 3M)

 

            

Boeing has broken below a key support level

Boeing missed earnings targets by a huge margin on June 29, 2020. One Wall Street analyst called it a "planewreck"! The company reported a loss of $4.20 when the Wall Street estimate was for a loss of $2.55. This huge miss is driving the stock even lower. I have done a brief technical analysis of Boeing's 3-month chart and it does not paint a pretty picture.  The stock dropped below key support level of around $169. Today's small rally in the stock that brought it to $162 may be a false one and Boeing may continue dropping. 

(Source: TradingView)

(Disclosure: I own Boeing)

Boeing Lost Support at 50-Day Moving Average In a Bearish Sign For the Stock

Boeing has lost support at the 50-day moving average. This is a bearish sign for the stock.

Exhibit: Boeing's Simple Moving Average (Data based on Monday, July 27, 2020)

(Source: Secure Your Financial Independence - DJIA SMA Report)

Boeing is currently trading at $169.26. There seems to be support at this level. If it loses support here, then Boeing may drop all the way to $120 for the next support level.  Given the bad news at Boeing, it is entirely possible that it will touch $120 in the coming weeks or months. 

Exhibit: Boeing Has Support at $169. If it loses this support, it may drop all the way to $120. 

(Source: SeekingAlpha & Author Annotations)

    Boeing recently announced that it will delay its 777x jet by up to an year. Even before the pandemic, Boeing was dealing with the problems with its 737 Max jets. When the pandemic hit, it grounded the entire travel industry. It now seems like it may take years before the travel industry can fully recover. It may take a couple of years after travel gets back to 2019 level that Boeing will start to get new orders for jets. There's so much excess inventory of jets across the globe that airlines may put off buying new jets for years. Combine this with the problem of airlines going bankrupt and you have lesser number of customers to chase for new jet orders.  Given all these factors, it's entirely plausible that Boeing's stock could give-up much of its gain since May 2020 and retrace to $120. If it loses support at $120, it may test its lows below $100.

    This crisis is a real test of leadership. Boeing is such an iconic company that it's painful to see this downfall. I am confident that in 3-5 years Boeing will be in much better shape.

(Disclosure: I own Boeing)        

Climate Change Mitigation Technologies Will be Winners in the Future

    For all the efforts that are underway across the globe to keep the earth's temperature from rising, one thing is becoming clearer with each passing day - climate change mitigation technologies and projects will have to be employed at a large scale to tackle its effects. Companies in the climate mitigation space should be on the radar for investors. 

    I have come to this conclusion after reading various articles on the topic of climate change over a number of years. A couple of recent articles in the New York Times only got be thinking more seriously about the kind of climate change mitigation technologies that will be winners in the future. One article discusses the crisis that could be brought on by the mass migration of people due to excessive heat caused by climate change. When excessive heat causes drought, destroys crops, and makes living conditions very hard, people may have no choice than to start migrating towards cities and seek refuge there.

    Various technologies may have to be employed to prevent farmers from dying of hunger and excessive heat. Providing people with air conditioned spaces could be one of the mitigation project that could be more broadly applied. Air conditioner makers such as Carrier (NYSE: CARR) may be a big beneficiaries of this trend. Use of air conditioners increases the global warming and those effects need to be mitigated too.

    To mitigate the effects of drought, more desalination plants will have to be built to supply growing cities with water.  These plants can also be used to supply water for irrigation. Israel is a leader in the use of desalination technology and it's just a matter of time before many other parts of the world - like India, Africa, the United States, and South America - need massive desalination capabilities. These plants are primarily based on seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) technology. The reverse osmosis plants consume a lot of energy. To reduce energy use, these plants employ energy recovery devices such as the one manufactured by Energy Recovery Inc (NASDAQ: ERII).

Exhibit: A Energy Recovery Device Built by Energy Recovery Inc.

(Source: Energy Recovery Inc.)

   

    Other technologies and projects that will gain wide spread use in the future are vertical or indoor farming and drip irrigation systems. A lot of venture capital investment is going into vertical farming companies. Softbank has invested in an indoor farming start-up called Plenty. While investors focus on high-tech startups like Plenty, they should not lose focus of "old school" technology such as water pumps, drip irrigation systems and water meters that could also see increasing demand in the years to come. Water conservation technologies beyond drip irrigation will gain ground. For example, low-flush toilets could gain wide-spread use in households. Sophisticated leak detection systems could be employed at a much wider scale to prevent water loss in the water distribution networks and at home. 

    As the world tackles climate change, investors should keep a close eye on mitigation technologies that could improve lives.  

(Disclosure: I own shares in Energy Recovery Inc.) 

            

      

Iberdrola and Orsted - The Global Renewable Energy Giants

      This was the headline from the Financial Times that caught my eye:

(Source: FT.com)

    The article talked about how the US spending on wind power is set to go from zero 10-years ago to $78 billion in the 2020 decade. That is a truly astounding turnaround in the fortunes of the renewable energy sector. A couple of years ago I had heard of this renewable energy company called Iberdrola from Spain. At that time I briefly read about it in the financial news and did not do an in-depth research into that company. This headline spurred me to action. We are in the midst of a far-reaching energy transformation that could transform every aspect of life by the year 2035. I wanted to learn more about not just Iberdrola but also Orsted - which is another renewable energy giant from Denmark. I don't remember hearing about Orsted until it was mentioned in this Financial Times article.

    Iberdrola comes from a very long history that dates back to the 20th century. The Wikipedia entry for the company makes for a fascinating read. Today it is one of the largest energy companies in the world with subsidiaries in multiple nations across the globe. Its subsidiary in the U.S. is called Avangrid. Avangrid has about 7,000 employees in the U.S and is headquartered in Orange, Connecticut. Iberdrola had revenues of € 36,437 million in 2019. In 2018 its revenues were € 35,075. Its EBITDA exceeded € 10 billion for the first time in 2019. Avangrid is traded in the U.S stock markets in the NYSE under the symbol AGR. 

    Orsted on the other hand had total revenue of DKK 67,842 million in 2019 (€ 9,113 million Exchange rate as of July 18, 2020: 1 Danish Krone = € 0.13). In 2018 the company had revenues of DKK 76,946 million (€ 10,336 million). Orsted had EBITDA of DKK 17.5 billion (€ 2.35 billion) in 2019.