Beta of Cummins Included in the List

 Here's the latest list of beta values. I have included Cummins on this list, and the returns for Cummins and the Vanguard S&P 500 Index are based on November 25, 2022, closing prices. Click on the image to see an enlarged version. 

Exhibit: Beta Values for Cummins Included in the list

Companies in this list:

• Cisco Systems
• Colgate-Palmolive
• Lennox International
• Sealed Air
• Boeing
• Newell Brands
• Timken
• Cummins

 

Beta of Various Stocks Listed in the US

I have calculated the beta of a few more stocks. Here's the latest list as of November 22, 2022. The one-year returns of Timken and Newell Brands are based on closing prices as of November 22.  

Exhibit: Beta of Various Stocks Listed in the U.S. 

Click on the image to see beta values. 
(Source:  Data Provided by IEX Cloud, Author's Analysis Using RStudio, Yahoo! Finance)

Stocks in this list: 

• Cisco
• Colgate
• Lennox
• Sealed Air
• Boeing
• Newell Brands
• Timken

  

Boeing's Monthly Return Volatility Compared to the Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF From June 2019 to August 2022

 Given its dominant position in the aerospace market, one would think Boeing's (BA) monthly returns would be less volatile than the S&P 500 index (VOO). But, Boeing has endured a lot in the past few years. First came the trade war with China that froze Boeing out of the second-largest aerospace market in the world.  Then came the COVID-19 pandemic that grounded airlines worldwide and brought Boeing to its knees. We did not even talk about the 737 Max plane crash in Ethiopia that kicked off the disastrous few years for Boeing.  

Boeing has never fully recovered from either the trade war or the pandemic. Boeing remains frozen out of the Chinese market, and airlines are only now seeing air travel return close to pre-pandemic levels (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: TSA Checkpoint Travel Number September 17, 2022 - September 26, 2022

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers (Source: TSA.GOV)

Now, the world is grappling with slowing growth due to high inflation and interest rates, which is putting further pressure on Boeing. By the looks of it, Boeing stock may take a decade or more to recover its losses if it ever recovers. Boeing's stock has dropped from $440 in March 2019 to $127 as of September 27 - a loss of 71%.  

Due to these massive crises, Boeing's stock returns have become unhinged from that of the S&P 500 index. A linear regression of the monthly returns of the Vanguard S&P 500 Index and Boeing yields a very high beta of 1.35 (slope of the regression line). The value of 1.35 is the coefficient of the monthly returns of the Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF (VOO).  Yahoo Finance displays a beta of 1.36 based on 5-year monthly returns.  One can expect any change in the Vanguard ETF to be magnified by Boeing.  For every 1% change in monthly returns of the S&P 500 index, Boeing's monthly returns are expected to change by 1.35%. Also, just 25% (Adjusted R-Squared in the RStudio output below) of Boeing's returns are explained by the monthly returns of the S&P 500 Index.  

Exhibit: Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF and Boeing Monthly Returns [June 2019 - August 2022]

Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF and Boeing Monthly Returns [June 2019 - August 2022]
(Source: Data Provided by IEX Cloud, Author Calculations Using RStudio)

Here's the output from the linear regression conducted on RStudio: 

> lmBAVOO = lm(BA_Monthly_Return~VOO_Monthly_Return, data = VOOandBA)

> summary(lmBAVOO)

Call:

lm(formula = BA_Monthly_Return ~ VOO_Monthly_Return, data = VOOandBA)

Residuals:

     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 

-0.26036 -0.07433 -0.00562  0.07323  0.33452 

Coefficients:

                   Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    

(Intercept)        -0.02348    0.02007  -1.169 0.249682    

VOO_Monthly_Return  1.35442    0.36247   3.737 0.000628 ***

---

Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 0.1229 on 37 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared:  0.274, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2543 

F-statistic: 13.96 on 1 and 37 DF,  p-value: 0.0006279

      

    

 

  

 

 

Boeing has broken below a key support level

Boeing missed earnings targets by a huge margin on June 29, 2020. One Wall Street analyst called it a "planewreck"! The company reported a loss of $4.20 when the Wall Street estimate was for a loss of $2.55. This huge miss is driving the stock even lower. I have done a brief technical analysis of Boeing's 3-month chart and it does not paint a pretty picture.  The stock dropped below key support level of around $169. Today's small rally in the stock that brought it to $162 may be a false one and Boeing may continue dropping. 

(Source: TradingView)

(Disclosure: I own Boeing)

Boeing Lost Support at 50-Day Moving Average In a Bearish Sign For the Stock

Boeing has lost support at the 50-day moving average. This is a bearish sign for the stock.

Exhibit: Boeing's Simple Moving Average (Data based on Monday, July 27, 2020)

(Source: Secure Your Financial Independence - DJIA SMA Report)

Boeing is currently trading at $169.26. There seems to be support at this level. If it loses support here, then Boeing may drop all the way to $120 for the next support level.  Given the bad news at Boeing, it is entirely possible that it will touch $120 in the coming weeks or months. 

Exhibit: Boeing Has Support at $169. If it loses this support, it may drop all the way to $120. 

(Source: SeekingAlpha & Author Annotations)

    Boeing recently announced that it will delay its 777x jet by up to an year. Even before the pandemic, Boeing was dealing with the problems with its 737 Max jets. When the pandemic hit, it grounded the entire travel industry. It now seems like it may take years before the travel industry can fully recover. It may take a couple of years after travel gets back to 2019 level that Boeing will start to get new orders for jets. There's so much excess inventory of jets across the globe that airlines may put off buying new jets for years. Combine this with the problem of airlines going bankrupt and you have lesser number of customers to chase for new jet orders.  Given all these factors, it's entirely plausible that Boeing's stock could give-up much of its gain since May 2020 and retrace to $120. If it loses support at $120, it may test its lows below $100.

    This crisis is a real test of leadership. Boeing is such an iconic company that it's painful to see this downfall. I am confident that in 3-5 years Boeing will be in much better shape.

(Disclosure: I own Boeing)